electionsmcp › 2026 Senate races
2026 Senate Elections
35 seats on the ballot decide control of the Senate. Every race below is rated from certified 2024 results and opens straight into a precinct-level model you can run yourself.
Seats on the ballot
35
Carryover (not up)
D 34 · R 31
Majority
51 seats
Baseline tally
D 34 · R 32
Likely R · 11 race
Ratings are the certified 2024 baseline — each state's presidential lean bucketed Safe (20+), Likely (10–20), Lean (4–10), Tossup (<4). Not a forecast: the map shows where every race starts. When the seat's incumbent and the state's lean disagree, that's the race to model.
The battleground — 0 closest races
Flip it yourself — the live board
The rest of the map
Frequently asked questions
How many Senate seats are up in 2026?
35 seats — the full Class II rotation. The other 65 senators are not on the ballot and carry over.
What does it take to control the Senate after 2026?
51 seats. Going into the cycle the carryover (seats not on the ballot) stands at 34 Democratic and 31 Republican — the 35 races below decide control on top of that baseline.
What do the ratings mean?
Each race is rated by the state's certified 2024 presidential lean: Safe (20+ points), Likely (10–20), Lean (4–10), Tossup (under 4). This is the starting map, not a forecast — an incumbent can hold a seat that leans the other way, and those disagreements are exactly the races worth modeling.
Can I model these races myself?
Yes — every race opens in the precinct-level simulator with real 2024 returns loaded. Change swing and turnout, or override any county or precinct, and the chamber math recomputes live.
Model the other chamber
All 435 U.S. House districts are on the same 2026 ballot — see the House board →